The year ahead

The year ahead comes amidst profound trepidation as prospects of shaking-off the woes of the past years appear dim and people fear that the problems they face will go on increasing. It is certainly not out of place to emphasise that political factor constitutes the singular element in determining the future of socio-economic future. In this backdrop the most unnerving aspect of the current scenario is the profound political instability that is exacerbating both the economic situation and the social milieu. The result is that Pakistan is trying hard to reconfigure its political order that has badly polarised the national mainstream and it appears extremely cumbersome to arrive at a consensual formula aimed at rectifying the wrongs of the past. It is expected that the horrible end-game of the hybrid experiment must have taught some lessons to the segments that matter and they may have lasting effects. It is also hoped that recurrence of such a debilitating activity will be avoided in future.
The history of the country brings to fore the fact that arbitrary forces always ventured to place a proxy in between exercise of power but now that buffer is gradually being displaced. However, the rather encouraging spectre of the wrapping up of the hybrid experiment has also a flipside and that is the pitting of civilian democratic elements directly against the powerful not-so hidden hand. This has resulted in complicating the field of governance as both segments placed against each other are not adept at acting on their own and this development has created an extremely complex pattern of relationship that in turn is reflected on the governance process of the country. As could be easily understood such a situation is highly untenable and may not last for long and may potentially give rise to a scenario whereby matters will reach breaking point sooner than later. The signs of an apparent breakdown are all too visible causing widespread jitters in the polity.
The main bone of contention between both the above mentioned segments is the consistent irritating factor of the former ruling party and its recalcitrant leadership. For the current ruling coalition dispensation it is absolutely imperative to take the sting out of the challenge it faces on the political front but that is only possible once the former supporters of the displaced regime dissociate themselves from it in toto. It is easier said than done because it is widely known that within the confines of the currently so-called neutral elements there is plenty of support for the apparently abandoned proxy that could not possibly be ignored. The coalition government is aware of this limitation and does not want to be duped into a situation again whereby it is used to take the blame for the mistakes committed in the past and is therefore insisting that the arbitrary elements take decisive action against their proxy.
This is precisely the reason that the coalition government is not taking more tough decisions required by the international financial donors for bailing the country out of the current financial mess because they fear that the proxy irritant would take the advantage of the resentment resulting out of such decisions. It is quite clear that the country is caught in an economic limbo because both segments holding reins of power are not willing to concede further space to each other. In the absence of a definite understanding suiting both the factions there is hardly any chance that the economic woes confronting the country could be rectified. The fact of the matter is that the civilian democratic element is just reading out of the play book of the arbitrary forces that allows matters to linger on to the worst possible scenario before taking correcting measures.
The civilian democratic forces appears to have learnt that it is the nerves that count and are unwilling to repeat the past by taking on the governance and then do somebody else’s bidding. This tactic is probably paying dividends as is borne out by the recently concluded national security conference in which it was conceded in unison that paying heed to economic priorities is the need of the hour and tacitly implying that political preferences now are taken to fall in the tertiary zone. This consensus may well be a temporary tactical concession agreed to be by the real decision makers but they also probably are now aware that the cost of a political bail-out is there to be coughed out and just handing back governance is not the ultimate price for it. It is now up to the civilian democratic political forces to stay together and work out a way out satisfactory to all segments of the socio-political polity as it is only ensuring such a solution that the country can come back to normalcy. TW