works in the private sector with interest in socio-political affairs
Dated
March 20, 2023
Shahmir looks at the current state of Russia mired in Ukraine
Even after a year of relentless fighting Russia mired in Ukraine conflict is showing hardly any chance of ending as both sides are bent upon carrying it on despite suffering tremendous losses. Western intelligence sources point out that the Russian mercenary group is now in control of most of the front-line town Bakhmut’s eastern part. Bakhmut is a key target of Moscow’s months-long campaign in eastern Ukraine that has resulted in staggering casualties. The sources mention that units from the Kremlin-backed paramilitary Wagner Group have captured most of eastern Bakhmut with a river flowing through the city center now marking the front line. However, the sources added that is proving highly challenging for Wagner forces to push ahead as Ukraine has destroyed key bridges over the river. Ukrainian sniper fire from fortified buildings further west has made the thin strip of open ground in the center a killing zone.
At the same time, Ukrainian troops and supply lines in the mining city remain vulnerable to continued Russian attempts to outflank the defenders from the north and south. In the meanwhile Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s chief has said that his forces are close to the center of the front line in Bakhmut. In a video posted on messaging app Telegram, Yevgeny Prigozhin is seen standing on the rooftop of a high-rise building in what is said to be located in the city center of Bakhmut. He also announced that he was seeking to run in next year’s presidential election in Ukraine. Wagner has been spearheading offensives against cities in eastern Ukraine in what has become the longest and bloodiest fight of Russia’s yearlong assault.
Many observers point out that Russia’s strategy for conquering Ukraine has changed and it now looks that it intends to exhaust Ukrainian forces rather than defeat them. They mention that since 2014, Russia’s strategic goal in Ukraine has highly likely been consistent as that was to control its neighbour. The policy for more than eight years pursued by Vladimir Putin and his military officials consisted of supervising and fomenting war in the country’s Donbas region while annexing Crimea. However in February 2022 Russia pivoted to a new approach and launched a full-scale invasion which attempted to seize the whole country and depose its government but this approach did not work.
And it so happened that by April 2022 Russia realised that this policy had failed and focused on expanding and formalising its rule over the Donbas and the south. It has made slow and extremely costly progress. Russia’s slow and costly progress in Ukraine is the main reason why defence analysts predicted that Putin and his military planners have likely changed their overall strategy to one that favours Russia’s strengths, namely its manpower reserves. In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again and now it primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing substantial new territory. The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia’s advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.
This renewed assessment is not entirely new as several experts and organisations have been predicting a Russian move towards a strategy of war that favours the kind of attritional operations that could cripple Ukraine. They point out that the war had only reached the end of its beginning. They mention that Putin started the war betting on a short and decisive campaign and Russia was favoured to win quickly. A year later, however, Putin is betting on the opposite—to wage a long war exploiting the advantages that Russia’s size, resilient economy and relative security from retaliation afford him. From Putin’s perspective, this is likely to be a viable strategy for the next phase of the war as he faced little pressure at home from a docile public.
But with this new strategy comes a new goal as taking the Donbas is no longer the Russian prize for victory, taking all of Ukraine is what will be Putin’s new goal moving into this different phase of the war. Intelligence experts point out that the Russian President was too confident in the abilities of his military forces and he is focused on wearing down Ukraine, to grind away and that is why he is giving every evidence that he is determined to do right now. They however mention that at some point he is going to have to face up to increasing costs as well and in coffins coming home to some of the poorest parts of Russia that will add up to the opposition for war. Whether this new strategy will work for Putin has yet to be seen. Russia does have the manpower and munitions advantage over Ukraine, but none of that will matter if a protracted war begins causing serious problems for Putin on the domestic front. TW
Russia mired in Ukraine
ByShahmir Kazi
works in the private sector with interest in socio-political affairs
Dated
March 20, 2023
Shahmir looks at the current state of Russia mired in Ukraine
Even after a year of relentless fighting Russia mired in Ukraine conflict is showing hardly any chance of ending as both sides are bent upon carrying it on despite suffering tremendous losses. Western intelligence sources point out that the Russian mercenary group is now in control of most of the front-line town Bakhmut’s eastern part. Bakhmut is a key target of Moscow’s months-long campaign in eastern Ukraine that has resulted in staggering casualties. The sources mention that units from the Kremlin-backed paramilitary Wagner Group have captured most of eastern Bakhmut with a river flowing through the city center now marking the front line. However, the sources added that is proving highly challenging for Wagner forces to push ahead as Ukraine has destroyed key bridges over the river. Ukrainian sniper fire from fortified buildings further west has made the thin strip of open ground in the center a killing zone.
At the same time, Ukrainian troops and supply lines in the mining city remain vulnerable to continued Russian attempts to outflank the defenders from the north and south. In the meanwhile Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s chief has said that his forces are close to the center of the front line in Bakhmut. In a video posted on messaging app Telegram, Yevgeny Prigozhin is seen standing on the rooftop of a high-rise building in what is said to be located in the city center of Bakhmut. He also announced that he was seeking to run in next year’s presidential election in Ukraine. Wagner has been spearheading offensives against cities in eastern Ukraine in what has become the longest and bloodiest fight of Russia’s yearlong assault.
Many observers point out that Russia’s strategy for conquering Ukraine has changed and it now looks that it intends to exhaust Ukrainian forces rather than defeat them. They mention that since 2014, Russia’s strategic goal in Ukraine has highly likely been consistent as that was to control its neighbour. The policy for more than eight years pursued by Vladimir Putin and his military officials consisted of supervising and fomenting war in the country’s Donbas region while annexing Crimea. However in February 2022 Russia pivoted to a new approach and launched a full-scale invasion which attempted to seize the whole country and depose its government but this approach did not work.
And it so happened that by April 2022 Russia realised that this policy had failed and focused on expanding and formalising its rule over the Donbas and the south. It has made slow and extremely costly progress. Russia’s slow and costly progress in Ukraine is the main reason why defence analysts predicted that Putin and his military planners have likely changed their overall strategy to one that favours Russia’s strengths, namely its manpower reserves. In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again and now it primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing substantial new territory. The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia’s advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.
This renewed assessment is not entirely new as several experts and organisations have been predicting a Russian move towards a strategy of war that favours the kind of attritional operations that could cripple Ukraine. They point out that the war had only reached the end of its beginning. They mention that Putin started the war betting on a short and decisive campaign and Russia was favoured to win quickly. A year later, however, Putin is betting on the opposite—to wage a long war exploiting the advantages that Russia’s size, resilient economy and relative security from retaliation afford him. From Putin’s perspective, this is likely to be a viable strategy for the next phase of the war as he faced little pressure at home from a docile public.
But with this new strategy comes a new goal as taking the Donbas is no longer the Russian prize for victory, taking all of Ukraine is what will be Putin’s new goal moving into this different phase of the war. Intelligence experts point out that the Russian President was too confident in the abilities of his military forces and he is focused on wearing down Ukraine, to grind away and that is why he is giving every evidence that he is determined to do right now. They however mention that at some point he is going to have to face up to increasing costs as well and in coffins coming home to some of the poorest parts of Russia that will add up to the opposition for war. Whether this new strategy will work for Putin has yet to be seen. Russia does have the manpower and munitions advantage over Ukraine, but none of that will matter if a protracted war begins causing serious problems for Putin on the domestic front. TW
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