Rebuilding after rain deluge

ByUmair Ali

Trainee lawyer

Dated

February 12, 2023

Rebuilding after rain deluge

Umair Ali looks at the attempts at bring back normalcy

The Rebuilding after rain deluge and devastating floods in Pakistan have wrecked havoc and this devastation badly battered Pakistan and its entire socio-economic fabric. Between June and August last year Pakistan endured the worst floods in its 75-year history as a prolonged heat wave in the spring accompanied by a drought and followed by a monster monsoon ultimately morphed into the wettest August since 1961. A combination of glacial melt; warming of sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and poor management led to a disaster on a scale never experienced before. The already halting economy took a severe battering and the people are still struggling to cope up with the widespread devastation. The flooding affected over 33 million people — some 15% of the Pakistan’s population and submerged a third of the country. The deaths were calculated to be in their thousands and the rains caused damage worth billions of dollars, compounding the woes of an economy already beset by a raft of problems, ranging from a heavy debt burden and ballooning current account deficit to a tumbling currency and skyrocketing inflation, particularly food prices.

The estimates of loss and damage resulting from floods stood at over $30 billion distributed across infrastructure, agriculture and various cross-cutting sectors. Meanwhile the total needs assessment for recovery and reconstruction added a further $1.3 billion making it a stupendous task to arrange such a huge amount. For the moment the rigorous efforts of the government succeeded in convincing the international community to assist in rebuilding efforts with the result that pledges of assistance to the tune of approximately $10 billion were obtained in Geneva. This amount would not only assist in rehabilitation efforts but will also dispel the impression that Pakistan is internationally isolated and that it is suffering from the affects of help-fatigue facing the wealthy states. In addition to this much needed financial assistance what is also required to be taken care of is loss and damage beyond direct costs.

Such intangibles include the loss to loss of the country’s natural capital as well as the opportunity cost of unemployment, lost income and migration and these issues cannot be ignored. It is also pointed out that the estimated financial costs also do not include the damage done to natural ecosystems and their contributions to well-being and economic activity including pollination, carbon sequestration and climate regulation, all of which have been disrupted by the floods. It is therefore emphasised that the rebuilding process should also keep in view the altered methodology for measuring economic growth and well-being. In this context it is mentioned that pursuit of narrowly defined economic growth has proved harmful for the country as it is destroying the ecological balance beyond safe boundaries that has been proven by its terrible consequences that arose after recent flooding.

While planning for the rebuilding efforts it should be kept in view that the situation on the ground should not be ignored particularly the state of ecosystems. It is well known that this consideration has become extremely important and globally ecosystem services are worth an estimated $130 trillion annually that is rated to be more than one-and-a-half times the size of global Gross Domestic Product. Yet to Pakistani policy it matters nothing and they rarely figure in the economic calculations that dominate their planning processes. It is often pointed out that by 2050Pakistan’s GDP growth will decline by 18 to 20 per cent and its primary cause would be climate risks and environmental degradation. Though this is the conventional wisdom yet basing development exclusively on the outdated yardstick of GDP is not the correct method of doing so as it fails to account for the inclusive wealth of a country.

What prudent planners point out is this that while going for GDP growth, ignoring the health of ecosystems and their critical role in supporting human and economic well-being will prove self-defeating in the long run. Such method is seriously limited in its content and application and limits the ability to track and assess human well-being. This short-sighted method is now proving to result in misguided growth and development pathways that actually regresses national growth instead of increasing it. In Pakistani scenario where the climate disaster has created tremendous problems it is imperative that rehabilitation efforts such as rebuilding houses, bridges and roads create an illusion of prosperity though in real terms the country may be much worse off.

It is very evident that without transformative change in how economic growth and well-being are measured, the risks remain that Pakistan will stay vulnerable to future shocks from climate change, recessions and pandemics. It is also required to invest in green infrastructure and nature-based solutions such as inclusive early warning systems and ecosystem restoration for ensuring maximum climate resilience for the country. It is now a widely acknowledged fact that emphasis on Gross Ecosystem Product and Living Standards Framework has resulted in enhancing productive capacities of a country because after all these considerations are what that ultimately matter in human existence. TW

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