Nabeel Zafar describes a prevailing instability
The unusual dissolution of Punjab after unusual vote of confidence & assembly defied almost all political pundits once again confirming that the way chain of events move in Pakistan is highly unpredictable. No one expected the dissolution as pragmatism dictated that it would serve no purpose for any of the stakeholders. In a chaotic session the Punjab CM managed to get a vote of confidence from the Punjab Assembly after the opposition walked out claiming that the vote was bulldozed and unconstitutional. The Punjab CM was directed by the Lahore High Court to see to it that he obtains a confidence of the house adding that it was compulsory for a chief minister to have round-the-clock support from a majority of lawmakers in the house. The LHC granted interim relief to the Punjab CM who was earlier de-notified by the provincial governor stating however that the CM cannot dissolve the provincial assembly in the interim. Accordingly, the Punjab CM went ahead and secured vote of confidence and then proceeded further ahead and dissolved the assembly.
To many political observers the failure of PDM to refrain Punjab CM from taking a confidence vote in the Punjab assembly was the result of the over reliance of PMLN on the establishment. Moreover, PMLN, henceforth the largest vote-getter in Punjab was also disappointed by the PPP that had undertaken to garner support for defeating the Punjab CM but failed. PMLN was very confident that the leadership of PPP would repeat its earlier performance in April 2022 when it managed to make it possible to get defections of a good number from the PTI that made a no-confidence motion against the then PM possible. It was also pointed out that the two most effective politicos of PMLN, Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, were in London causing the party to meander rudderless and face defeat. The impression was also doing rounds that PMLN leadership is avoiding to openly face the PTI amidst fears of public retaliation.
In a rather rare gesture that gave away so much the PPP conceded defeat by admitting that it made all-out efforts to save the Punjab Assembly from dissolution but it was PTI that played well and left very little space for the PPP to manage things as it had done in the past. However, most observers are of the opinion that while the PMLN was busy playing numbers in Punjab, the PPP was more focused towards Balochistan where it had managed to bring key electables into the party fold. The party was also gearing up for the local bodies’ elections in Karachi and Hyderabad and did not pay exclusive attention to Punjab. It was added by PPP apologists that meetings, consultations and backdoor contacts, however, failed to manage things since Imran Khan himself was handling affairs related to the vote of confidence over the past several weeks. It was also pointed out that with just seven members in the Punjab Assembly, the PPP could not decisively swing matters.
The consensual opinion of political observers is that though several PTI members were angry with the top leadership as well with Punjab CM because of their conduct yet they somehow were convinced the dissenting members that ditching the ruling coalition at this juncture may prove harmful for their future political careers. The current buzz in Punjab is that PMLN is going nowhere and it is safe to remain associated with the PTI that is supposedly considered to win any future election be it provincial or federal. This sentiment is not echoed in Punjab but is holding water amongst almost all political factions in the country and, to a great degree, it is considered valid.
It apparently did not favour any political faction and went against any logic or reason. Instead of reducing the political instability, the dissolution has further complicated the political atmosphere as the spectre of an election in the largest province of Pakistan may bring in a split mandate that will increase the instability. How things will unfold only future will tell but for the moment political situation appears to be in a mess with no immediate satisfactory solution in sight. It is widely feared that an unstable Punjab may certainly cause problems for governance in the federation as the coalition federal government may come under tremendous duress that, in turn, may harm the ongoing efforts to stabilise the badly badgered economic situation of the country.
The current situation indicates that Punjab as well as the country is heading further into uncharted territory. The main issue would be to tackle some potent questions that the provincial assemblies’ premature dissolution will raise. Polls in Punjab will have to be held within 90 days of Punjab assembly’s dissolution, which would lead to a situation in which these elections will be completely out of sync with those for the National Assembly unless the PDM accept PTI’s demand and simultaneously hold the general election. For the moment it looks pretty unlikely as it simply does not suit the parties of the PDM and if they refuse then some change in the election law will become necessary, either through the courts or through a presidential ordinance or some other similar measure. Another point to ponder that may add to the confusion is that both the Constitution and the election law require the general election to be held under caretaker governments in the centre as well as the provinces. Going by this condition, it will be questioned that what will happen to the governments which will come into power in the two provinces after premature provincial assembly polls.
It is quite obvious that to resolve such anomalies, amendments would be required in the legal framework but the problem in this respect is that this task could only be undertaken by a functional parliament and a politics of dialogue. As the events of the last four years have amply demonstrated, any recourse to mutually satisfactory parleys appears very difficult. In absence of any politically held talks the other possibility is to leave the matter to be decided by the judiciary but here the problem that may arise is profound dissatisfaction expressed by political elements about judicial arbitration and also that many judges have not shown consistency in viewing many aspects of democratic and pluralistic governance and this attitude may negatively colour the outcome of any judicial arbitration.
It is also to be taken into consideration that the deep divide between federal and provincial perceptions about governance may also place a good deal of hurdles in the way of appropriate solutions. There is hardly any doubt that what was expected as a natural collaboration between the federation and the largest province has lost credence and currently it may not be possible to expect that matters will move smoothly between them. It could very well be imagined that a serious disconnect between both these entities many correspondingly and adversely react upon the ability of the establishment to influence events in either entity with highly negative results thereof. It is already apparent that the state apparatus is stretched to the limit by the contending federal and provincial entities and may well collapse if matters are not resolved without further delay. TW
Punjab after unusual vote of confidence
ByNabeel Zafar
Works in the private sector
Dated
January 21, 2023
Nabeel Zafar describes a prevailing instability
The unusual dissolution of Punjab after unusual vote of confidence & assembly defied almost all political pundits once again confirming that the way chain of events move in Pakistan is highly unpredictable. No one expected the dissolution as pragmatism dictated that it would serve no purpose for any of the stakeholders. In a chaotic session the Punjab CM managed to get a vote of confidence from the Punjab Assembly after the opposition walked out claiming that the vote was bulldozed and unconstitutional. The Punjab CM was directed by the Lahore High Court to see to it that he obtains a confidence of the house adding that it was compulsory for a chief minister to have round-the-clock support from a majority of lawmakers in the house. The LHC granted interim relief to the Punjab CM who was earlier de-notified by the provincial governor stating however that the CM cannot dissolve the provincial assembly in the interim. Accordingly, the Punjab CM went ahead and secured vote of confidence and then proceeded further ahead and dissolved the assembly.
To many political observers the failure of PDM to refrain Punjab CM from taking a confidence vote in the Punjab assembly was the result of the over reliance of PMLN on the establishment. Moreover, PMLN, henceforth the largest vote-getter in Punjab was also disappointed by the PPP that had undertaken to garner support for defeating the Punjab CM but failed. PMLN was very confident that the leadership of PPP would repeat its earlier performance in April 2022 when it managed to make it possible to get defections of a good number from the PTI that made a no-confidence motion against the then PM possible. It was also pointed out that the two most effective politicos of PMLN, Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, were in London causing the party to meander rudderless and face defeat. The impression was also doing rounds that PMLN leadership is avoiding to openly face the PTI amidst fears of public retaliation.
In a rather rare gesture that gave away so much the PPP conceded defeat by admitting that it made all-out efforts to save the Punjab Assembly from dissolution but it was PTI that played well and left very little space for the PPP to manage things as it had done in the past. However, most observers are of the opinion that while the PMLN was busy playing numbers in Punjab, the PPP was more focused towards Balochistan where it had managed to bring key electables into the party fold. The party was also gearing up for the local bodies’ elections in Karachi and Hyderabad and did not pay exclusive attention to Punjab. It was added by PPP apologists that meetings, consultations and backdoor contacts, however, failed to manage things since Imran Khan himself was handling affairs related to the vote of confidence over the past several weeks. It was also pointed out that with just seven members in the Punjab Assembly, the PPP could not decisively swing matters.
The consensual opinion of political observers is that though several PTI members were angry with the top leadership as well with Punjab CM because of their conduct yet they somehow were convinced the dissenting members that ditching the ruling coalition at this juncture may prove harmful for their future political careers. The current buzz in Punjab is that PMLN is going nowhere and it is safe to remain associated with the PTI that is supposedly considered to win any future election be it provincial or federal. This sentiment is not echoed in Punjab but is holding water amongst almost all political factions in the country and, to a great degree, it is considered valid.
It apparently did not favour any political faction and went against any logic or reason. Instead of reducing the political instability, the dissolution has further complicated the political atmosphere as the spectre of an election in the largest province of Pakistan may bring in a split mandate that will increase the instability. How things will unfold only future will tell but for the moment political situation appears to be in a mess with no immediate satisfactory solution in sight. It is widely feared that an unstable Punjab may certainly cause problems for governance in the federation as the coalition federal government may come under tremendous duress that, in turn, may harm the ongoing efforts to stabilise the badly badgered economic situation of the country.
The current situation indicates that Punjab as well as the country is heading further into uncharted territory. The main issue would be to tackle some potent questions that the provincial assemblies’ premature dissolution will raise. Polls in Punjab will have to be held within 90 days of Punjab assembly’s dissolution, which would lead to a situation in which these elections will be completely out of sync with those for the National Assembly unless the PDM accept PTI’s demand and simultaneously hold the general election. For the moment it looks pretty unlikely as it simply does not suit the parties of the PDM and if they refuse then some change in the election law will become necessary, either through the courts or through a presidential ordinance or some other similar measure. Another point to ponder that may add to the confusion is that both the Constitution and the election law require the general election to be held under caretaker governments in the centre as well as the provinces. Going by this condition, it will be questioned that what will happen to the governments which will come into power in the two provinces after premature provincial assembly polls.
It is quite obvious that to resolve such anomalies, amendments would be required in the legal framework but the problem in this respect is that this task could only be undertaken by a functional parliament and a politics of dialogue. As the events of the last four years have amply demonstrated, any recourse to mutually satisfactory parleys appears very difficult. In absence of any politically held talks the other possibility is to leave the matter to be decided by the judiciary but here the problem that may arise is profound dissatisfaction expressed by political elements about judicial arbitration and also that many judges have not shown consistency in viewing many aspects of democratic and pluralistic governance and this attitude may negatively colour the outcome of any judicial arbitration.
It is also to be taken into consideration that the deep divide between federal and provincial perceptions about governance may also place a good deal of hurdles in the way of appropriate solutions. There is hardly any doubt that what was expected as a natural collaboration between the federation and the largest province has lost credence and currently it may not be possible to expect that matters will move smoothly between them. It could very well be imagined that a serious disconnect between both these entities many correspondingly and adversely react upon the ability of the establishment to influence events in either entity with highly negative results thereof. It is already apparent that the state apparatus is stretched to the limit by the contending federal and provincial entities and may well collapse if matters are not resolved without further delay. TW
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