Iran Saudi thaw and Pakistan

ByHoor Asrar Rauf

A national swimming champion and recently Graduated from UCF-USA in Hospitality and Event Management

Dated

March 26, 2023

Iran Saudi thaw and Pakistan

Hoor Asrar talks about an Iran Saudi thaw and Pakistan

After a successful signing of an agreement to restore relations and normalize ties, Iran Saudi thaw and Pakistan literally galloped towards increasing their interaction. The deal is expected to see Shi’ite-majority Iran and mainly Sunni Saudi Arabia reopen their embassies and missions within two months and implement security and economic cooperation deals signed more than 20 years ago. King Salman of Saudi Arabia who is reported to remain in background extended an invitation to the Iranian leader to visit Saudi Arabia. This development took place just a week after both the regional adversaries agreed to reconciliation in a Chinese-brokered deal, interestingly seven years after they were broken in 2016 when Iranian protesters attacked Saudi diplomatic missions following the Saudi execution of revered Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr that was known as just one incident in a series of flashpoints that kept on cropping up frequently. The Saudi clout in the region saw to it that several Gulf countries followed in Riyadh’s footsteps in 2016 and cut off ties with Tehran though the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have recently restored ties.

It is widely acknowledged that Saudi Arabia under its young crown prince has ushered in a spate of changes and is driving the country towards adopting socio-political mores usually practiced in the modern world. The crown prince is also transforming the economic scenario of the country aimed at diversification of economy and reducing reliance on oil revenues. Saudi leadership has expressed its future designs according to which it envisages its role as a hub having worldwide connections and in this context has launched Vision 2030 that has recently been supported by rising oil prices allowing the kingdom to increase expenditure on social welfare projects. It is noted that the Saudi society is gradually coming out of its cultural limbo and is shedding its intense conservatism though it still faces segments that strongly oppose such opening up.

As an important player in international arena Saudi Arabia is under pressure to alter its typical foreign policy dictated by ultra-conservative and absolute-monarchical considerations. One aspect that the kingdom is paying specific attention is to rationalise its overarching security dependence on America that is known to be the guarantor of its security. This change in perception has seen the kingdom slowly drifting away from the United States and seeking alternative venues in this respect. It was actually King Salman who indicated this crucial divergence by visiting Russia and becoming the first-ever Saudi monarch to do so. However, the typical issues confronting Russia soon convinced Saudi Arabia to look for alternate means for ensuring its security that resulted in the kingdom’s tilt towards China witnessing President Xi visiting Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh welcomed President Xi Jinping last December, signing 34 deals for investment in green energy, IT, cloud services and other sectors, estimated at around $30 billion. Riyadh also hosted Xi’s meeting with 30 heads of state and businesses of the region. It was quite obvious then this new linkage would produce some result that would alter the regional balance. In addition to this initiative the kingdom also reached out to Turkey and Qatar and mended fences with them. It also did not hesitate to open up parleys with Israel though there was plenty of caution involved there.

On the other hand, Iran is seriously besieged as sanctions against it keep on piling making its economy seriously dysfunctional. Moreover, it is also facing intense internal disorders that have refused to end raising serious questions about the credibility and possible survival of the clerical regime. Both the internal and external factors have compelled the Iranian regime to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia as their mutual animosity has created serious imbalance in the region. It is widely known that Saudi Arabia has been on a spending spree to acquire defence equipment and is known to be the largest recipient of military hardware. Combined with its partner the UAE, Saudi Arabia their mutual expenditure on defence procurement is simply mind-boggling that has increased the risks of confrontation in the region manifold. The situation is further exacerbated for Iran in particular when viewed in the backdrop that it is supporting and funding proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen that are back-breaking burden on the country’s finances. Understandably, therefore, Iran seeks to reduce tensions with its Arab neighbours and counter US attempts to isolate and marginalise it.

It was conjectured since some time that the dwindling influence of America in the Middle Eastern region would reconfigure the geostrategic situation and other influential countries will try to establish their influence. Russia and China was mentioned to be the aspiring contenders but after Russia gradually lost its will to play a decisive role in the region, it became apparent that China will try its hand. This projection started to come true when Saudi Arabia invited Chinese president to the kingdom and it was revealed that China proposed large-scale technological ventures and that both countries will soon be engaged in activity. China is heavily dependent upon both Saudi and Irani oil and cannot afford to let antagonism between them create any difficult situation. It is therefore in the interest of China to play the role of interlocutor between both the countries. China is also engaging Iran in a multifaceted relationship and has concluded 20 substantial agreements under the 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership agreement signed in 2021, with potential Chinese investments in Iran to the tune of $400 billion. China has also called for lifting of US sanctions against Iran, restoring the nuclear deal, and has supported Iran’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS.

America is understandably perturbed by the breakthrough achieved by China but keeping in view the strained relationship it currently has with the kingdom it could not do anything to restrict the growing influence of China in the region. The US, locked in a competition with China, is justified in viewing this development as a setback to its policy in the region. What is now expected is that America will not sit by idly and deeply review its policy about Saudi Arabia. It may increase its criticism of human rights in the kingdom following the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In any case the kingdom’s pragmatic moves to normalise relations with Iran and enhance ties with China are a reality check for Washington but it would not abandon the policy to contain China through its Indo-Pacific strategy though its options are shrinking due to its overreliance on military muscle rather than diplomacy.

The rapprochement revealed a curious angle when it was mentioned that Pakistan had something to do with it. Questions are therefore asked that how would this breakthrough affect Pakistan and many analysts believe that as the economic and commercial linkages between China and the kingdom grow Pakistan may surely look for benefits accrued out of it. Pakistan may take advantage of the potential investment coming from China and Saudi Arabia as the kingdom is willing to set up an oil refinery in Pakistan. Pakistan can also expand border markets with Iran and also increase trade linkages. However, skeptics point out that this rapprochement will hardly make any difference to Pakistan as the pattern of Pakistani relationship with both Iran and Saudi Arabia mostly pertains to defence cooperation with the kingdom and border security and terrorism issue with Iran. TW

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